August 2021

Welcome to August. My performance was flat this month across all mutual funds, in part due to the rough trading day and Amazon earnings debacle on Friday. I am actually quite pleased the market reacted the way it did to the Amazon earnings call as it shows there are still some analysts looking for strong fundamentals. The broader market and traders also seem to have cooled their feet a bit. It is the summer and stimulus checks are shrinking, so I'm not surprised the market has cooled down. Additionally, I think investors and traders are trying to figure out how to price the coming inflation, additional federal stimulus, and an infrastructure bill that seems to be much smaller (or larger depending on your perspective) than originally proposed. Two things I am certain about and one side effect of federal intervention - continued infusion of capital into the economy will create inflation and artificial demand, and this type of spending cannot last forever. Obviously, when it ends and how it ends will need to be tracked very closely by all of us. For now, based on the continued fiscal policies, I am still bullish on the market-even with the Delta variant. As for the Delta variant, I am honestly not concerned for two reasons. First, the historical pattern of the Delta variant in India (what the Delta variant was originally called) and in the UK, reveal that it burns itself out much faster than the original virus. Second, lockdowns will not occur, at least in the USA. While COVID-19 and its variants are probably here to stay, I think we are seeing the last gasps of restrictions due to the virus. People have been under a lockdown mentality for 2.6% of their lives; I don't think people will entertain much more. Couple of specific notes on the international funds for USAA and Vanguard - While I am still bullish on the US market, these international funds look to benefit from a return to normal GDP growth, compared to last year. Many international markets seem to have managed the Delta variant and lack of vaccines without facing the worst case scenario (India came close). Keep living and keep investing!