November 2021

Happy Halloween and welcome to November! After coming off a rough September, I'm pleased to report that we were solidly in the black for October with returns ranging from 4.5-5.5% across the three fund families. All of the mutual funds, with the exception of the bond funds produced incredible results for a month devoid of really any stellar news for the economy. Many of the drivers of the stock market (Amazon and Apple) did not have strong quarters. The GDP estimate was revised downwards to 2% and any Federal stimulus seems to be on hold. So, what is driving this rally, one word, inflation. First it was temporary, then it was not going to be sticky or it will be transitory, and now it will be with us until the middle of next year. At some point, this inflationary pattern will ingrain itself into the minds of consumers, and prices will be permanently reset. The stock market is pricing this in. To account for inflation, companies are now providing mid-year pay raises when they used to only raise salaries once a year. As long as inflation is a threat, the market will continue to prioritize preservation of capital in the stock market over the loss of capital in the Bond market. How does this impact all of us? This process has created and will continue to create a bubble. The trick with bubbles is to not be in the market when they burst, the other trick is to participate as long as possible without being left holding the bag. I do have concerns about the bubble, inflation, supply chain shortages, and a potential collapse of the market. However, I do not think a collapse is imminent. We are struggling in this post-COVID economy, and there will continue to be strong moves up and down, but we believe a collapse is not in the near future. Keep investing!