October 2021

Well, that was a rough month. No safe harbor for any investments in the stock market save the energy sector. I have been warning since January 2021 inflation was coming. Despite the PR campaign to say it was not sticky, it seems to have stuck. We have been over 5% since May, and we are at 5.3% as of the last monthly reporting. Translation, if you are not earning over 5.3% in returns, you are making negative returns. This makes any fund earning less than 5.3% negative and the real returns for many mutual funds much tamer. As of this writing, our elected representatives have approved the continuing resolution to keep our government running, and they will vote later tonight on the infrastructure bill. The infrastructure bill initially looked like it had support when proposed months ago, but the increase to $3.5T seems untenable. Even the $1.5T bill will unleash a massive amount of artificial stimulus that will spur on the economy, but will also add to our debt and increase inflation even more. This type of spending and inflation, if coupled with growth, can lead to a stronger economy. However, it could also lead to a quick sugar high, followed by a crash and inflation-otherwise known as stagflation. I still think in the short-term investors will in continue to seek returns higher than inflation, and the only place to do that is in the market itself (outside other creative investment vehicles we do not have access to with these mutual funds). Long-term, we need a return-to-work policy and a concerted effort to keep inflation at the target 2%. Keep investing!